Oil Near $100 Threatens U.S. Stocks’ Stellar Run

学习目标

• 掌握财经涨跌、成本与风险的常用表达。
• 拆解嵌套从句、分词压缩、回指与条件情景。
• 读清图表单位、统计时点、预测归属和行业分化。

American investors are ready to move on from the Iran war. The march toward $100-a-barrel oil is making that difficult.

美国投资者已准备把注意力从伊朗战争上移开。 油价却正朝每桶 100 美元迈进，让他们难以如愿。

Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, is now up around 35% from this summer’s lows. It jumped above $99 a barrel Tuesday, the highest since July, before giving up some gains.

作为国际石油价格基准的布伦特原油，目前较今年夏季低点已上涨约 35%。 周二，油价一度突破每桶 99 美元，创七月以来最高水平，随后回吐部分涨幅。

Oil’s rebound toward the year’s highs is already showing up in domestic gasoline prices. That has hit consumer discretionary stocks sharply over the past month, as well as industrial companies which count oil as a key input cost.

油价向年内高点反弹，已经反映在美国国内的汽油价格上。 过去一个月，这重创了可选消费类股票，也打击了那些把石油视为重要投入成本的工业企业。

The expected impact on inflation has also sent Treasury yields higher, another challenge for stocks. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.805% Tuesday, its highest closing level since October 2023.

市场预期油价会影响通胀，这也推高了美国国债收益率，给股市带来另一重挑战。 十年期美国国债收益率周二升至 4.805%，创下 2023 年十月以来的最高收盘水平。

Yields, which rise when bond prices fall, affect borrowing costs for companies and can make riskier assets such as stocks look less attractive when they are elevated.

债券价格下跌时，收益率就会上升。收益率会影响企业的借贷成本，而且在其处于高位时，会使股票等风险较高的资产显得不那么有吸引力。

“Progress on inflation is poised to reverse if geopolitical tensions don’t simmer,” said José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers.

盈透证券高级经济学家 José Torres 表示：“如果地缘政治紧张局势不能缓和，抑制通胀所取得的进展就可能逆转。”（此处按上下文译意；simmer 的用法见难点辨析。）

Oil-sensitive stocks took a hit Tuesday before recovering some ground as Brent fell off the day’s highs to close at $97.92 a barrel. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 1.2%, or about 628 points, dragged down by Amgen. The biotechnology company tumbled 10%, its biggest one-day decline in more than 25 years, after a competitor’s heart disease drug failed a clinical trial, casting doubt on similar drugs under development.

对油价敏感的股票周二先受挫，随后随着布伦特原油从日内高点回落、收于每桶 97.92 美元，这些股票收复了部分失地。 受安进公司拖累，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌 1.2%，约合 628 点。 这家生物技术公司的股价暴跌 10%，创下二十五年多来最大的单日跌幅；此前，一家竞争对手的心脏病药物临床试验失败，使市场对其他在研同类药物产生疑虑。

The S&P 500 index closed 0.6% lower. The Nasdaq composite fell 0.3%.

标普 500 指数收盘下跌 0.6%。 纳斯达克综合指数下跌 0.3%。

The U.S. attacked Iranian oil tankers on Tuesday, after Iran launched an attack against U.S. Navy ships on Monday, according to a U.S. official.

据一名美国官员称，伊朗周一袭击美国海军舰船后，美国于周二袭击了伊朗油轮。

Iran’s recent attempts to hit American naval assets are raising alarm that its military is using more sophisticated weapons and could be getting assistance from China or Russia, according to the officials.

据这些官员称，伊朗最近试图打击美国海军装备，引发了这样的担忧：伊朗军方正在使用更先进的武器，并且可能正在获得中国或俄罗斯的协助。

Kim Fustier, senior global oil and gas analyst at HSBC, said in a Tuesday note that her new base case now assumes that a U.S.-Iran understanding will emerge but be vulnerable to repeated breakdowns.

汇丰银行全球油气高级分析师 Kim Fustier 在周二的一份报告中表示，她的新基准情景如今假设，美国与伊朗将达成某种谅解，但这一谅解可能反复破裂。

Traffic through water chokepoints will only improve gradually as the industry adapts to elevated risk, she said, adding that liquids flows through the Strait of Hormuz would rise from the current six million barrels a day to eight million barrels a day by year-end and 9.5 million barrels a day by mid next year. Before the war, around 20 million barrels a day flew through the waterway.

她说，随着航运业适应更高的风险，海上咽喉要道的通行状况只会逐步改善；她还补充说，经霍尔木兹海峡运输的液体货物流量，将从目前的每日六百万桶，增至年底的每日八百万桶，并在明年年中增至每日九百五十万桶。 战前，每天约有两千万桶经由这条水道运出。

“This leaves the market tighter for longer than we had previously assumed,” Fustier said. She raised her forecast for Brent to $90 a barrel for this year from $80 a barrel previously.

“这意味着市场供应偏紧的持续时间，会比我们先前预想的更长，”Fustier 说。 她将今年布伦特原油价格的预测值从此前的每桶 80 美元上调至 90 美元。

Analysts at Goldman Sachs and Bank of America also raised their Brent forecasts.

高盛和美国银行的分析师也上调了布伦特原油价格预测。

“If skirmishes curbing oil flows continue into year end, Brent could trade in a $95-120 a barrel range. Meanwhile, a broader conflict resulting in major energy infrastructure damage may spike prices as high as $150 a barrel,” Bank of America analysts wrote in a Monday note.

“如果限制石油运输的小规模冲突持续到年底，布伦特原油的交易价格可能处于每桶 95 至 120 美元的区间。 与此同时，如果冲突扩大、导致能源基础设施遭到严重破坏，油价可能飙升至每桶 150 美元，”美国银行分析师在周一的一份报告中写道。

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has been subdued for weeks. On Monday, only nine commodities vessels crossed the waterway and five so far Tuesday, according to preliminary data from Kpler. By comparison, transits averaged around 30 in late June after the U.S. and Iran signed a preliminary peace deal and nearly 100 in the 10 days before the war.

霍尔木兹海峡的通航活动数周来一直低迷。 根据 Kpler 的初步数据，周一只有九艘大宗商品运输船通过该水道，周二截至统计时点则只有五艘。 相比之下，在美国与伊朗签署初步和平协议后的六月下旬，日均通行量约为三十艘；在战前的十天里，日均则接近一百艘。

The S&P 500 energy sector is now up more than 40% on the year, with oil producers benefiting from higher prices. Shares of Marathon Petroleum closed at an all-time high $397.77 on Tuesday.

标普 500 能源板块今年以来已上涨逾 40%，石油生产商从更高的油价中受益。 Marathon Petroleum 的股票周二收于 397.77 美元，创下历史收盘新高。

学习资料

精读笔记