Inflation is back around the world—as is the fight against it

学习目标

• 区分总体、核心、服务通胀与通胀预期，解释央行为何在预期尚稳时仍可能加息。
• 区分文章事实、市场预期、调查结果与机构判断，用证据控制结论强度。
• 迁移10个关键句型，在新情境中主动使用至少5个核心表达。

WHO REMEMBERS the “soft landing”? In 2022-23 central bankers dreamed of bringing high inflation down without triggering a recession. Some countries came awfully close to achieving it. But with victory tantalisingly close, a growing number of central banks are now redoubling their fight against inflation. Price pressure is building. The world is a long way from the pain of four years ago, but the diagnosis is not promising.

谁还记得“软着陆”？ 在2022–23年，各国央行官员曾梦想在不引发经济衰退的情况下压低高通胀。 一些国家几乎就要实现这一目标。 然而，就在胜利仿佛触手可及之际，越来越多的央行如今再次加大抗击通胀的力度。 价格压力正在积聚。 世界距离四年前的痛苦仍然很远，但目前的诊断并不乐观。

On September 2nd New Zealand’s central bank raised rates. Rate-setters on the other side of the Tasman sea have already increased borrowing costs three times this year. The Bank of Japan did so in June and the Bank of Korea in July and August. On September 10th the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to raise its deposit rate to 2.5%. Many traders expect that, before long, the Federal Reserve will follow.

新西兰央行于9月2日加息。 塔斯曼海另一边的利率决策者今年已经三次提高借贷成本。 日本央行在6月采取了同样行动，韩国央行则在7月和8月加息。 欧洲中央银行预计将在9月10日把存款机制利率提高到2.5%。 许多交易员预计，美联储不久也会跟进。

Policymakers are responding to growing evidence of rising price pressure (see chart 1). Average annual inflation across rich countries has stopped falling towards 2%, the target in most of them, and has instead edged up in recent months. In August annual inflation in the euro zone reached 3.3%, the highest in three years. Switzerland has inflation of just 0.8% a year, reflecting economic policy that is one of the wonders of the modern world. But even that is a two-year high. And in some places prices are evoking the sad memories of the “cost-of-living crisis”. Inflation is close to 6% in Lithuania, for instance, up from 3.1% in January.

政策制定者是在回应越来越多的价格压力上升证据（见图1）。 富裕国家的平均年度通胀率已经停止向2%回落——这是其中大多数国家的目标——近几个月反而略有上升。 8月，欧元区年度通胀达到3.3%，为三年来最高。 瑞士的年度通胀率仅为0.8%，反映出堪称现代世界奇迹之一的经济政策。 但即使这一水平，也创下了两年新高。 在一些地方，物价正唤起人们对“生活成本危机”的痛苦记忆。 例如，立陶宛的通胀接近6%，而1月时为3.1%。

Energy is the main culprit, but not the only one. War in the Middle East has caused the price of oil and natural gas to rise. In Europe, natural-gas prices are more than twice as high as before the Iran war. They could go further as the continent’s storage tanks are refilled ahead of the winter. Already euro-zone energy inflation is easily in double-digits. The typical American, meanwhile, is paying just over $4 for a gallon of petrol, up from less than $3 at the beginning of the year.

能源是主要的罪魁祸首，却不是唯一原因。 中东战争推高了石油和天然气价格。 在欧洲，天然气价格已超过伊朗战争前的两倍。 随着欧洲大陆在冬季到来前重新填满储气设施，价格还可能进一步上涨。 欧元区能源通胀已经明显达到两位数。 与此同时，普通美国人购买一加仑汽油要支付略高于4美元，而年初还不到3美元。

The problem, however, may be bigger than fuels. The Economist estimates that across the rich world, average annual “core” inflation, which strips out energy and food, has increased from 2.7% in early 2026 to 2.9% today. To examine countries’ underlying inflationary pressure in more detail, we found comparable figures for 23 rich countries on services prices, which are largely determined by the price of labour (rather than more volatile commodities). Services inflation is rising in two-thirds of our sample. This is despite the fact that in many countries measures of wage growth continue to decline. (One explanation for this puzzling result is that wages are not well measured; another is that falling productivity growth in services makes it harder for firms to absorb pay rises.)

不过，问题可能不只在燃料。 《经济学人》估计，在富裕世界，剔除能源和食品的平均年度“核心”通胀率已从2026年初的2.7%升至目前的2.9%。 为了更细致地考察各国潜在的通胀压力，我们找到了一组覆盖23个富裕国家、口径可比的服务价格数据。服务价格主要由劳动力价格决定，而不是由波动更大的大宗商品决定。 在我们的样本中，三分之二的国家服务通胀正在上升。 尽管许多国家衡量工资增长的指标仍在下降。 （一种可能解释是工资没有得到准确计量；另一种解释是服务业生产率增速下降，使企业更难消化加薪成本。）

So far there is little evidence that people are revising up the price rises they anticipate in the future—the thing that would really spook policymakers. Most market-based measures of inflation expectations have not moved meaningfully in recent weeks. A recent survey by the ECB suggests that consumers expect lower inflation over the next year than they did a few months ago. Fancy leading indicators of inflation—including from Alternative Macro Signals, a consultancy, which analyses millions of news articles—do point to strengthening global inflationary pressures. But these tools’ predictive record is patchy.

到目前为止，几乎没有多少证据显示人们正在上调对未来物价涨幅的预期——而这才是真正会使政策制定者警觉的事情。 大多数基于市场的通胀预期指标近几周都没有明显变化。 欧洲央行近期的一项调查显示，消费者对未来一年通胀的预期低于几个月前。 包括咨询公司Alternative Macro Signals所编制指标在内的一些复杂通胀领先指标——该公司分析数以百万计的新闻文章——的确指向全球通胀压力正在增强。 然而，这些工具过去的预测表现并不稳定。

Whatever the future holds, many central banks are in no mood to take chances (see chart 2). Critics have argued that in 2021-22 policymakers dawdled in responding to surging inflation: rate-setters do not want to make the same mistake twice. They “shouldn’t wait” for inflation to become entrenched before responding, Slovenia’s central-bank governor has counselled. Isabel Schnabel, who sits on the ECB’s board, recently warned that waiting until energy costs pass through to pay could once again leave policymakers behind the curve.

无论未来如何，许多央行都不愿冒险（见图2）。 批评者认为，政策制定者在2021–22年面对通胀飙升时行动迟缓；利率决策者不想把同一个错误犯两次。 斯洛文尼亚央行行长建议，他们“不应等到”通胀变得根深蒂固后才作出反应。 欧洲央行执委会成员伊莎贝尔·施纳贝尔近期也警告说，如果一直等到能源成本传导至工资，政策制定者可能再次落后于形势。

A new tightening cycle may, then, just be getting started. UBS, a Swiss bank, reckons that many of the central banks which have not yet started tightening will do so soon. Candidates include Sweden’s, and even Switzerland’s. For all the appearance of a soft landing, the fight against inflation never really ended.

因此，新一轮货币紧缩周期或许才刚刚开始。 瑞士银行UBS认为，许多尚未启动紧缩的央行很快就会行动。 候选者包括瑞典央行，甚至还有瑞士央行。 尽管表面上看似已经实现软着陆，抗击通胀的战斗其实从未真正结束。

学习资料

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