Canada’s oil industry is booming. Can it last?
加拿大石油繁荣能持续多久
眼前利润丰厚，为什么企业仍可能不愿投资新产能？本文从油砂开采、汇率、管道和长期资本占用入手，区分现有业务的繁荣与新项目能否成立，并用节庆景象为未解决的问题收尾。
原文来源：The Economist
学习目标
- 区分当期利润、储量与新增产能
- 解释油价和汇率影响的条件
- 拆解长主语、分词与嵌套从句
- 用有边界的推断回答标题
中英对照阅读
“PLEASE GOD, give me one more oil boom—and I promise not to piss it all away next time” reads a popular bumper sticker in Canada’s oil patch. Recent results from the country’s oil producers show that plea has been answered. Oil prices have jumped as the passage of tankers through the Strait of Hormuz has been choked off. Last month Cenovus Energy reported that operating profits in its most recent quarter had nearly tripled compared with a year before. Canadian Natural Resources posted its best-ever quarterly adjusted operating profit. Moreover, the easing of political headwinds in Canada may improve the chances of the boom lasting.
加拿大油区一种流行车贴上写着：“上帝啊，请再给我一次石油繁荣——我保证下回不再把这一切挥霍光。” 该国石油生产商近期业绩表明，这个祈求已经得到回应。 油轮通过霍尔木兹海峡的通行受阻，油价随之跃升。 上个月，Cenovus Energy报告，其最近一个季度的营业利润接近上年同期的三倍。 Canadian Natural Resources录得有史以来最高的季度调整后营业利润。 此外，加拿大政策阻力的减轻，可能提高这轮繁荣持续下去的机会。
Canada has the world’s fourth-largest proven reserves, with 97% found in the oil sands in a remote corner of the land-locked province of Alberta. Here the bitumen, mixed with sand and clay, is almost solid, and is mined rather than tapped from the ground. It is costly and dirty to extract and process. Despite the drawbacks, high prices combined with a weakening of the Canadian dollar mean that “it hasn’t been this good to be an oil-sands producer in a very long time,” says Andrew Leach of the University of Alberta.
加拿大拥有全球第四大探明储量，其中97%位于内陆省份阿尔伯塔偏远地区的油砂中。 这里的沥青与沙和黏土混合，几乎呈固态，需要采挖，而不是像常规原油那样直接从地下抽取。 提取和加工成本高，污染也重。 尽管存在这些缺点，阿尔伯塔大学的安德鲁·利奇说，高油价再加上加元走弱，意味着“作为油砂生产商，已经很久没有这么好的日子了”。
Getting more oil to market is also set to become easier. Justin Trudeau, Canada’s former prime minister, was tepid in his support for new pipelines, fearing the consequences for the climate. In 2018 regional political opposition led Kinder Morgan, an American firm, to suspend work on a conduit from Alberta to the west coast in British Columbia. That forced the national government to step in and complete it. Oil eventually started flowing in 2024.
把更多石油送到市场，也有望变得更容易。 加拿大前总理贾斯廷·特鲁多担忧对气候的后果，对新管道的支持不温不火。 2018年，地区性的政治反对促使美国公司Kinder Morgan暂停建设一条从阿尔伯塔通往不列颠哥伦比亚西海岸的管道。 这迫使联邦政府介入，并完成该管道。 石油最终于2024年开始输送。
Lately the political mood has shifted. A trade war with America, the destination for 90% of Canadian oil, has shifted the federal government’s focus to reducing dependence on its southern neighbour. That includes support for building new infrastructure to transport oil (and gas) to ports on Canada’s west coast, from where it can be shipped to Asia. Mark Carney, Canada’s current prime minister, is intent on slashing the red tape that holds up projects, including streamlining environmental permitting and consultations with indigenous communities. The speedier process will apply to a new pipeline under development to British Columbia, announced last month. Lisa Baiton of the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, an industry group, has spoken of a “generational opportunity” to rally political and public support behind new oil projects.
最近，政策氛围发生了变化。 与美国的贸易战，让联邦政府将重点转向减少对南部邻国的依赖；美国是加拿大90%石油的目的地。 这包括支持建设新基础设施，将石油及天然气运到加拿大西海岸港口，再从那里运往亚洲。 加拿大现任总理马克·卡尼决意削减拖延项目的繁文缛节，包括简化环境许可与原住民社区协商程序。 这一更快的程序，将适用于上个月宣布的一条正在开发、通往不列颠哥伦比亚的新管道。 行业组织加拿大石油生产商协会的丽莎·贝顿称，这是凝聚政策与公众支持、推进新石油项目的一次“世代难逢的机遇”。
The promise of a federal government more friendly to pipes may not be enough, however. Enbridge, an energy-infrastructure firm, has paused construction of a pipeline to the east, citing a lack of commitments by producers to provide enough oil to make it worthwhile.
不过，一个对管道更加友好的联邦政府所带来的前景，可能还不够。 能源基础设施公司Enbridge暂停了一条向东管道的建设，理由是生产商没有作出足够的供油承诺，无法保证项目值得建设。
The unique challenges of the oil sands provide an explanation. Investment in new sites has been virtually non-existent since the oil price crashed in 2014 as demand weakened while America’s shale oil gushed and OPEC opened the taps. “It cannot be overstated how much that changed the industry,” says Kent Fellows of the University of Calgary. Moreover, projects in the oil sands take far longer to develop than conventional wells. They require enormous amounts of capital that could be tied up for five to ten years before profits flow. Uncertainty over the future price of oil—and the danger that a change of government might lead to the reinstatement of tighter regulations—make for risky bets.
油砂独有的挑战解释了这一点。 自2014年油价暴跌以来，对新场址的投资几乎一直不存在；当时需求减弱，而美国页岩油大量涌出，欧佩克也开大了供油阀门。 卡尔加里大学的肯特·费洛斯说：“这给行业带来的改变，再怎么强调也不为过。” 此外，油砂项目的开发时间，远长于常规油井。 它们需要巨额资本，而这些资本可能被占用五到十年，之后才开始产生利润。 未来油价的不确定性，加上政府更迭可能导致更严格规定恢复的风险，使这些项目成为有风险的押注。
Nevertheless, at the Calgary Stampede, an annual rodeo festival held in July that serves as the industry’s unofficial barometer, parties hosted by oil companies were back to their riotous best after quietening down in recent years. Their sponsorship of rowdy chuckwagon races broke records. That is as good a sign as any that another boom is in full swing.
然而，在每年7月举行、被视为行业非正式晴雨表的卡尔加里牛仔节上，石油公司举办的派对在近几年转趋安静后，又恢复了最喧闹热烈的盛况。 它们对热闹的篷车赛的赞助创下纪录。 这和任何其他迹象一样，都足以表明又一轮繁荣正在如火如荼地展开。